Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.859819 1.959422 2.063483 2.180663 2.309372 2.446930 2.605715
2025-04-20 1.723033 1.862915 2.015650 2.196097 2.405181 2.642000 2.933717
2025-04-27 1.645565 1.812129 1.999874 2.229755 2.507335 2.836743 3.265300
2025-05-04 1.587642 1.774005 1.989505 2.261253 2.601061 3.021120 3.595513
2025-05-11 1.517547 1.714426 1.946559 2.246057 2.631121 3.123283 3.825233
2025-05-18 1.459344 1.664261 1.909962 2.233392 2.659692 3.221465 4.055202
2025-05-25 1.406027 1.616365 1.872224 2.214956 2.676747 3.302334 4.265764
2025-06-01 1.358590 1.572903 1.836946 2.196226 2.690116 3.376581 4.471742
2025-06-08 1.324307 1.543971 1.818068 2.196962 2.728600 3.487559 4.744976
2025-06-15 1.300955 1.527529 1.813931 2.216332 2.793200 3.640583 5.104006
2025-06-22 1.260152 1.486775 1.775786 2.186448 2.784072 3.679999 5.274974
2025-06-29 1.219426 1.444582 1.733879 2.148908 2.760747 3.694419 5.402167
2025-07-06 1.176468 1.398641 1.685985 2.101709 2.721660 3.682950 5.485374
2025-07-13 1.160166 1.387290 1.684219 2.119868 2.782170 3.837440 5.903537
2025-07-20 1.149895 1.383383 1.692109 2.151854 2.865457 4.036989 6.446342
2025-07-27 1.139477 1.378734 1.698506 2.181550 2.946630 4.240595 7.040108
2025-08-03 1.115207 1.354401 1.676337 2.167235 2.955287 4.315225 7.363496
2025-08-10 1.093078 1.332301 1.656465 2.155301 2.966762 4.395521 7.716186
2025-08-17 1.070427 1.308814 1.633782 2.137924 2.967783 4.455801 8.032640
2025-08-24 1.048837 1.286202 1.611593 2.120265 2.967051 4.512282 8.351990
2025-08-31 1.033843 1.272349 1.601532 2.120959 2.997723 4.633107 8.873749
2025-09-07 1.024732 1.266430 1.602700 2.139222 3.060028 4.824108 9.651334
2025-09-14 1.002688 1.241701 1.575530 2.111044 3.037678 4.836792 9.897963